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6. July 2007, 09:59:43
Hrqls 
Subject: chances of rolling a 1 in 2 moves
what is the chance of rolling a 1 ?
i think its 11/36 ?

what is the chance of rolling a 1 in 2 moves after another ? (rolling 2 1s in total)
is that 11/36 * 11/36 ?

or can i determine it this way :
(lets assume the chance of rolling a 1 in 1 move is 1/3 to make the calculation a bit easier, and ignore the rule of big numbers)
so i roll a 1 in 3 rolls, for the next move i roll a 1 in 3 rolls as well giving me 2 1's in 6 rolls .. which would lead to a chance of 1/6 to roll a 1 in 2 moves directly after another ? .. hmm .. this doesnt feel right in a lot of aspects .. but i can put my finger on it exactly :)

i am asking this because i am playing tric trac on another site and want to know what my chance is to bear off 2 pieces on the 1 position .. i think its 10/36 * 10/36 + 1/36 = 17/162 ?

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