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20. December 2012, 02:01:23
wetware 
Subject: Re:
Modified by wetware (20. December 2012, 02:23:11)
Czuch: I agree with those who've stated that your opponent should have doubled at every opportunity at this match score, beginning with their very first turn.  Each opportunity they missed was a mistake.  At this point--now that they've gained just a single point--they should be thinking: "If only I had doubled sooner, and my opponent had taken!  If I'd won, I'd only have been 2 points away from victory--and that would have meant my only needing to win 1 more game, because I'll double immediately in the next game, too."

I believe that you were correct to pass when you did, Czuch.  At that point, your opponent was about a 60% favorite to win the game.  You must also consider the relatively few--but exceedingly painful--gammon losses that could instantly lose the match with the cube on 2.  All considered, it's a bit too much risk for you to be taking.  By passing, you only allow your opponent's match winning chances to creep up slightly--from 31% when this game began, to 32.26% now that the match score has reached 3 away / 1 away.  You're not sacrificing much by doing that.

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