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grenv: Even easier and more reliable, since all games all recorded : querying the database for all pair of first roll and second roll in every game since x months. I'd expect the results to be overwhelmingly abnormal.
nabla: But that would be too easy...cheating me of all the fun of capturing these values by hand! :-)
As I mentioned to you in a message, let me now state on the board:
"...based in part on Alan's recent comments, I'm tempted to also capture the actual rolls for aggregate analysis. Based on observed rolls from 1000+ of my games [all of year 2008], we should then have a fairly solid idea whether or not there's a problem with the basic frequency of the dice rolled. It would be good to know whether we should suspect that a fault lies there, or whether we should spend time looking elsewhere."
wetware: analysis of my year 2008 games is still in progress. 313 of ~700 games complete. (My earlier guesstimate of ~1000 games was off the mark.)
So far I see no sign of anything unusual in the individual dice values on the opening roll. (I'll wait for the values from all ~700 games before I look for any pairwise strangeness.)
Here were the individual dice frequencies from the first 313 games:
1 on die = 111 occurrences 2 on die = 102 occurrences 3 on die = 104 occurrences 4 on die = 100 occurrences 5 on die = 116 occurrences 6 on die = 93 occurrences
Early results from 2008 show an excess (approximately 4 times the mean expected frequency) of responder rolls exactly matching opening rolls. I'm still aiming to finish and report tomorrow. Will save my raw observed values as a text file, for anyone who'd like them. File will also include--for each game--the URL of the page showing the opening and responding dice rolled. You'll be able to check my transcription error rate :-)
(hide) Tired of placing boats or Espionage pieces at the begining of the game? You can go to Game Editors and save some of your favourite positions for future use. (pauloaguia) (show all tips)