Hrqls: Looking at the position you've got two men back versus Gamek's single man which ready to escape. If it doesn't manage to escape, (eg a 2-1) then you've got to hit it and cover the blot on your 4-point. You've got no home development and only the initial builder's points while Gamek has her bar point and three sources of builder. Both your back men are blocked on 6s and 5s. And the pipcount deficit is 20 points plus the roll. Not a lot of joy in that scenario. ;-)

grenv: Nicely judged.


Cube analysis, cubeful equities:

3-ply
W 73.2%, Wg 18.5%, Wbg 0.6%, L 26.8%, Lg 5.0%, Lbg 0.1%

1. Double, pass _______ +1.000
2. Double, take _______ +1.238   (+0.238)
3. No double __________ +0.978   (-0.022)
Proper cube action: Double, pass


Rollout, 1296 games
W 72.8%, Wg 29.3%, Wbg 2.6%, L 27.2% Lg 6.4%, Lbg 0.5%

1. Double, pass _______ +1.000
2. Double, take _______ +1.217   (+0.217)
3. No double __________ +0.964   (-0.036)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

The figure in bold is how much would have been given away by taking the cube. A value of .200+ makes it a major blunder.