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wetware: Are you, by any chance, recording how often the opponent gets one of the starter's dice? In the example games that I did back in November, in one of the matches that occurred with every single game
And here are the first 5 matches on your finished games page. Red denotes one or two common dice, bold black shows where there are no common dice.
playBunny: I've mentioned the excessive frequency of "near-misses" below (when discussing my 2009 data). But that could result, as you suggest, solely from the excessive re-appearance of just 1 of the dice in the responder's roll. In my 2008 data, the frequency of responder's dice not matching either of the opener's dice was only about 1/2 of expectation.
No doubt that the re-appearance of one of the dice is excessive. Later today, I'll have a better idea just how excessive it is. And I will take a look to see whether the "other" die in such cases appears to be completely independent, or also shows signs of unusual influence.
2 other notes regarding the exclusive focus upon the the first 2 rolls of the game:
Psychological: I think humans tend to notice/remember items that appear near the beginnings or ends of lists or sequences. It's an effect seen in some memory tasks. That might have been a factor here. I think that repeated rolls would more easily get our attention when they occur from the commonly-seen, symmetrical, initial position. Typically, we don't have much complicated stuff to think about during the opening rolls--maybe trying to remember what's best in a GG situation--so we can afford to think about other stuff...such as the frequencies and patterns of rolled dice.
Practical: As an investigator, I can be more confident that games will contain at least 2 rolls. That doesn't always happen, due to timeouts, etc. But it makes data capture much easier.
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