pentejr:.
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Doubling when on the bar is not 99.98% stupid.
Probably yes, i gave that number more or less randomly and i was wrong....But still the situations you described are more rare to happen altough not 0.02% as i've said.

grenv:
If your 2 home pieces are on positions 1,2 then the opponent has about 70% to lose.
If your 2 home pieces are on positions 5,4 then the opponent has about 62% to lose.