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16. júla 2010, 12:47:33
nabla 
Subjekt: Re:
grenv: Even easier and more reliable, since all games all recorded : querying the database for all pair of first roll and second roll in every game since x months. I'd expect the results to be overwhelmingly abnormal.

16. júla 2010, 15:33:47
wetware 
Subjekt: Re:
nabla:  But that would be too easy...cheating me of all the fun of capturing these values by hand!    :-)

As I mentioned to you in a message, let me now state on the board:

"...based in part on Alan's recent comments, I'm tempted to also capture the actual rolls for aggregate analysis.  Based on observed rolls from 1000+ of my games [all of year 2008], we should then have a fairly solid idea whether or not there's a problem with the basic frequency of the dice rolled.  It would be good to know whether we should suspect that a fault lies there, or whether we should spend time looking elsewhere."

18. júla 2010, 07:06:27
wetware 
Subjekt: Re:
wetware:  analysis of my year 2008 games is still in progress.  313 of ~700 games complete.  (My earlier guesstimate of ~1000 games was off the mark.)

So far I see no sign of anything unusual in the individual dice values on the opening roll.  (I'll wait for the values from all ~700 games before I look for any pairwise strangeness.)

Here were the individual dice frequencies from the first 313 games:

1 on die = 111 occurrences
2 on die = 102 occurrences
3 on die = 104 occurrences
4 on die = 100 occurrences
5 on die = 116 occurrences
6 on die = 93 occurrences


Early results from 2008 show an excess (approximately 4 times the mean expected frequency) of responder rolls exactly matching opening rolls.  I'm still aiming to finish and report tomorrow.  Will save my raw observed values as a text file, for anyone who'd like them.  File will also include--for each game--the URL of the page showing the opening and responding dice rolled.  You'll be able to check my transcription error rate    :-)

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