grenv: That's a very good point and suggests that I made a mistake in setting up the analysis. I'll do it again....

But no. At a score of 2-away, 2-away, whether in a 2-point match or the 21-pointer that it was, the number and conclusion are the same: -0.238 (3-ply) and a very bad take.

Hmmmm......

Doh! It's in what Hrqls said in the original query, "i am not sure if i have a better chance winning the next 2 games than i would have had to win the doubled game (which i declined)". The answer is a resounding Yes to trying to win the next two games rather than that single one.

I normally use the equity figures when analysing but GnuBg can alternatively show the equivalent in Match Winning Chance and it's much better for this query.

Cube analysis, 3-ply, MWC

1. Double, pass _____ 68.75%
2. Double, take _____ 73.20%  (+4.45%)
3. No double ________ 68.33%  (-0.42%)

Proper cube action: Double, pass

This time you can see that taking the cube gives away 4.45% more than playing the next two games.