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5. September 2006, 02:12:48

playBunny

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Subject: Odds of passing in Ludo.

Modified by playBunny (5. September 2006, 02:13:27)

Rolls   %     1 in N           10%       20%       30%       40%       50%       60%       70%       80%
 1    83.333    1.2   |=========:=========:=========:=========:=========:=========:=========:=========:===
 2    69.444    1.4   |=========:=========:=========:=========:=========:=========:=========
 3    57.870    1.7   |=========:=========:=========:=========:=========:========
 4    48.225    2.1   |=========:=========:=========:=========:========
 5    40.187    2.5   |=========:=========:=========:=========:
 6    33.489    3.0   |=========:=========:=========:===
 7    27.908    3.6   |=========:=========:========
 8    23.256    4.3   |=========:=========:===
 9    19.380    5.2   |=========:=========
10    16.150    6.2   |=========:======
11    13.458    7.4   |=========:===
12    11.215    8.9   |=========:=
13     9.346     11   |=========
14     7.788     13   |========
15     6.490     15   |======
16     5.408     18   |=====
17     4.507     22   |=====
18     3.756     27   |====
19     3.130     32   |===
20     2.608     40   |===
21     2.173     45   |==
22     1.811     55   |==
23     1.509     65   |==
24     1.257     80   |=
25     1.048     95   |=
26     0.873    115   |=
27     0.727    135   |=
28     0.606    165   |=
29     0.505    200   |=
30     0.421    235   |
31     0.351    300   |
32 **  0.292    350   |
33     0.243    400   |
34     0.203    500   |
35     0.169    600   |
36     0.141    700   |
37     0.117    850   |
38     0.097   1000   |
39     0.081   1200   |
40     0.068   1450   |
41     0.056   1750   |
42     0.047   2100   |
43     0.039   2550   |
44     0.032   3050   |
45     0.027   3650   |
46     0.022   4400   |
47     0.018   5250   |
48 **  0.015   6300   |
49     0.013   7600   |
50     0.010   9100   |
51     0.009  10900   |
52     0.007  13100   |

That record of 48 passes was a 1 in 6300 happening.
In contrast, getting 32 passes is only a 1 in 350 occurence.