Hrqls: I don't know any stats about a position like that or not, but in my opinion - I would not have taken the double either.

Your opponent could easly close up your only opening (even with a 7 - which as I understand the most common dice roll) - or at the very least, moved his piece so you could not land on him.

You would have needed luck, too much lunk in my opinion to accept it.

BIG BAD WOLF: hehe *nod* somehow i forgot the fact that i still have to come off from the bar first ... i was thinking 'can he send me back to the bar' and 'do i think i can hit his single piece there' :)

now i realize he could easily close it down i am glad i didnt ponder too long and declined quickly :)

grenv: do you really think he could have gammoned me ? how far away does someone have to be to have a chance to be gammoned ?
i would have 5 pieces out, 4 which i could move in with 2 moves, 1 piece which could take longer. i suppose i would be out when there are 2 positions free, leaving my opponent with at least 8 pieces, which means about 5 rolls .. hmm .. calculating out loud now ... 5 rolls .. thats about what i would need to get my pieces in my home and 1 out :)

i think i could have been gammoned indeed with just a little luck for my opponent, but not as much as i thought it would take :)

Hrqls: on the other hand though ... i still had a chance to hit alan back .. and by taking this 1 point we entered the crawford game in his advantage

so i think it was a nice thing to do double after all :)

Hrqls: hmm on the other hand .. if i had accepted i would have had the option to double back making this the final game in the match

argh! doubling questions at the end of the match are tougher than at the start :)

Hrqls: You had almost no chance to hit back, all he needed was a 7 or 8 on 2 dice, or a 1 or a 3 to block you entirely.

grenv: *nod* but when he was bearing off i had a little chance ... not big enough to worry about though

but i wonder if that chance is lower than the chance of me winning 2 more matches (as the first is the crawford game)

so far alan won 6 out of 6 games against me, so him winning at least 1 game in the next 2 is about ... hmm 100% *fear* ;)

Hrqls: Of course not -- resistance is futile ;-)

Seriously, it was a dead drop, I only cashed because I didn't see a serious gammon possibility.

alanback: I disagree, I think it was too good to double.

grenv: If this were a game of backgammon, I would probably agree with you. But I think in Crowded it takes a bit longer to bear off fully after opening the 6 point, so I thought the chance of a gammon was negligible. It is always necessary to consider the risk that I could be forced to leave a shot during the bearoff, a risk I prefer to avoid!

alanback: lol, i didn't even notice it was crowded. Just looked really quickly.

grenv: I thought as much

alanback: :) i know ... but you know the dutch .. they are like that knight on the bridge in monty pythons :)