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18. July 2010, 14:23:10
playBunny 
Subject: Re: Dupled, dupled dice are trouble.
wetware: Are you, by any chance, recording how often the opponent gets one of the starter's dice? In the example games that I did back in November, in one of the matches that occurred with every single game

And here are the first 5 matches on your finished games page. Red denotes one or two common dice, bold black shows where there are no common dice.

Backgammon (blue sky vs. wetware)
46 ... 61
35 ... 63
23 ... 42
53 ... 53
15 ... 52
53 ... 53
63 ... 63

Backgammon (wetware vs. blue sky)
62 ... 62
41 ... 51
41 ... 51
64 ... 64
23 ... 22
65 ... 55

Backgammon (blue sky vs. wetware)
61 ... 26
34 ... 33
31 ... 31

Backgammon (blue sky vs. wetware)
12 ... 21
64 ... 64
65 ... 65

Backgammon (wetware vs. mertos)
12 ... 11
21 ... 21
12 ... 21
25 ... 62
12 ... 21
65 ... 65

And here are the first 7 hypergammon matches off mine:

Hyper Backgammon (playBunny vs. Sarah)
32 ... 31
56 ... 51
12 ... 51
24 ... 62
56 ... 52
35 ... 51

Hyper Backgammon (playBunny vs. Varazslo)
23 ... 42
34 ... 33
13 ... 31

Hyper Backgammon (playBunny vs. Petromil)
63 ... 63
16 ... 61
34 ... 33

Hyper Backgammon (sascham vs. playBunny)
35 ... 63
14 ... 41

Hyper Backgammon (playBunny vs. Ian C)
35 ... 63
43 ... 22
42 ... 32
15 ... 62
52 ... 53
63 ... 65

Hyper Backgammon (Doris vs. playBunny)
63 ... 63
25 ... 62

Hyper Backgammon (Helena vs. playBunny)
36 ... 41
12 ... 11
41 ... 41

And here's a single 11-pointer of Resher's

Backgammon (Karol G. vs. Resher)
63 ... 11
43 ... 45
61 ... 51
23 ... 51
41 ... 11
63 ... 51
34 ... 62
63 ... 52
65 ... 51
65 ... 52
63 ... 62
12 ... 52
64 ... 42
41 ... 51

18. July 2010, 15:31:04
wetware 
Subject: Re: Dupled, dupled dice are trouble.
playBunny: I've mentioned the excessive frequency of "near-misses" below (when discussing my 2009 data).  But that could result, as you suggest, solely from the excessive re-appearance
of just 1 of the dice in the responder's roll.  In my 2008 data, the frequency of responder's dice not matching either of the opener's dice was only about 1/2 of expectation.

No doubt that the re-appearance of one of the dice is excessive.  Later today, I'll have a better idea just how excessive it is.  And I will take a look to see whether the "other" die in such cases appears to be completely independent, or also shows signs of unusual influence.

2 other notes regarding the exclusive focus upon the the first 2 rolls of the game:

Psychological:  I think humans tend to notice/remember items that appear near the beginnings or ends of lists or sequences.  It's an effect seen in some memory tasks.  That might have been a factor here.  I think that repeated rolls would more easily get our attention when they occur from the commonly-seen, symmetrical, initial position.  Typically, we don't have much complicated stuff to think about during the opening rolls--maybe trying to remember what's best in a GG situation--so we can afford to think about other stuff...such as the frequencies and patterns of rolled dice.

Practical:  As an investigator, I can be more confident that games will contain at least 2 rolls.  That doesn't always happen, due to timeouts, etc.  But it makes data capture much easier.

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