Hrqls: You've got 10 half-crossovers or 5 full crossovers to get all your men home. Barb has only got 2. That gives her a lot of time in which to make up for the gap on 23 and 24. (A gap on 4 or 21 is usuually more disaster-prone)

Another way of gauging the race is with the pipcounts. 88 vs 73 has you trailing by two full rolls. Generally, in reasonably matched positions, a deficit of 8% is enough to offer the cube and you'd take when up to 12% behind, depending on how long there is to the end. You're trailing by way too much.

Couple that with the half-crossovers measure and it's a bad picture. Even a juicy 5-5 next go will have you not even matching Barb's current position and she'd have had another roll by then and still be on roll.

That "feeling lucky" needs to be working well, and not be daunted by this spelling out of the situation! May the best dice win.