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8. 十一月 2012, 23:37:15
Übergeek 바둑이 
题目: Re: Thoughts on Romney
Übergeek 바둑이修改(8. 十一月 2012, 23:41:55)
JerNYC:

> When the Republicans finally wise up and run a candidate that has crossover appeal and who outright rejects the far right-wing, they will have a chance again.

I think that this election will force many Republicans to do some soul searching and to see why it was that President Obama won in spite of problems with the economy, unpopular domestic policies and unpopular foreign policies. I agree that Mitt Romney did very well, in fact, better than I expected him to do. His political career (at least as presidential candiadte) is over. However, the loss is due to Romney's inability to clearly define his political stance. He won the nomination by portraying himself as somebody who could defend conservative values. Yet as the campaign wore on he became more "liberal" and that disenchanted many voters. The true picture is given more clearly by some statistics that were released by CNN. O stands for Obama's share of the vote. R stand for Romney.

Voting by Age

18-24: 60% O, 36% R
25-29: 60% O, 36% R
30-39: 55% O, 42% R
40-49: 48% O, 50% R
50-64: 47% O, 51% R
> 65: 44% O, 55% R

This clearly shows that the Democrats are much more popular among young people (under 40). This demographic should really worry Republicans because these young people will age and as they grow older support for the Democrats among the older age groups will increase. If Republicans are to win (and indeed survive) then they must find a way to appeal to young voters and then retain that support as those young voters age.

Vote by Gender and Race:

White men: 36% O, 61% R
White women: 43% O, 55% R
Black men: 88% O, 11% R
Black women: 96% O, 3% R
Latino men: 63% O, 35% R
Latino women: 75% O, 24% R
All others: 67% O, 31% R

Minorities (Hispanics, African Americans, Asians, etc) made up 28% of the electorate.

Looking at that distribution we see that the Democrats really attracted women voters. Undoubtedly some of the positions of Republican candidates hurt Romney's chances to attract women voters. Romney tried to distance himself from some of the controversial candidates in his party but women voters in the end did not ignore those elementary mistakes.

The issue of minorities is a serious one too. At 28% of the voting population (and growing) minorities can now swing an election. The Republicans were hurt by some of their policies on immigration, civil rights, women's rights, etc.

From these demographics it seems that the Republicans are becoming a party for "older white males". Such a perception has to change if the Republicans are to continue into the future. Republicans have to find a candidate that appeals to women and minorities. The current Tea Party stance is likely to fail unless it can be modified to address the issues that affect that 28% of the population that can now swing an election.

Taking into account these observations, did any of the candidates that ran for the Republican nomination (Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, etc.) possess the qualities that would swing the minority and female vote? The answer is no. They all represented an old, established elite within the Republican Party. The Tea Party might be offering some new faces, but with values that will never be acceptable to that 28% of the vote. It will be interesting to see how Republicans adapt to these challenges.

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