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15. Julho 2010, 19:50:56
Resher 
Assunto: Re: Opening rolls for Brainking dice
Modificado por Resher (16. Julho 2010, 15:51:07)
I've performed a Chi-squared test on the hypothesis that the probabilities of responder's first roll having 0, 1 and 2 dice the same as opener's roll are as they should be, that is 16/36, 18/36 and 2/36 respectively.

This is a test with 2 degrees of freedom, so the chi-squared statistic has:
 a 5% chance of exceeding 6.0 if the probabilities are correct,
 a 1% chance of exceeding 9.2
 a 0.5% chance of exceeding 10.6, and
 a 0.1% chance of exceeding 13.8

alanback's result (from 55 games) is 9.2.  A result this high or greater would happen only 1% of the time, so this is enough to cause suspicion that the dice aren't following the desired probabilities.  But it's not proof.  Also, this test is reckoned to give very accurate results only if the expected outcomes are all greater than 5.  So, with our smallest probability being 2/36, this means we need at least 90 games in our sample for me to be happy beyond reasonable doubt about the conclusion.

So, moving on to my results (100 games), I get a statistic of 102.

And lastly, wetware's results (137 games) give a statistic of 139.

Remember, if the dice rolls are working properly, there's only a 1 in a 1000 chance of this chi-squared statistic being 13.8 or higher in any individual test, so the conclusion can't really be in doubt - something is wrong somewhere.

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